Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 97898.895621 103187.631146 108471.978605 114144.618396 120058.136586 126037.442312 132536.649624
2025-10-26 88659.012758 96699.682088 104954.334225 114051.507907 123785.085292 133876.563137 145119.210608
2025-11-02 82384.529481 92318.022230 102735.352192 114453.070556 127244.331859 140761.546154 156103.619603
2025-11-09 77270.143680 88585.626275 100666.526620 114489.018934 129829.964933 146297.408909 165273.360200
2025-11-16 73886.251806 86398.388817 99964.879022 115715.556211 133444.850697 152729.747274 175237.219210
2025-11-23 70226.753685 83626.441482 98362.405258 115699.955651 135466.233546 157224.620204 182910.114152
2025-11-30 68010.867381 82319.966522 98256.479041 117229.638875 139106.268948 163441.528995 192457.249220
2025-12-07 65755.613740 80821.546329 97801.408390 118241.155196 142057.253328 168808.006209 200998.309228
2025-12-14 63147.267982 78774.357716 96589.126636 118261.909676 143768.481665 172682.860783 207780.448607
2025-12-21 60942.715816 77096.367000 95710.841554 118582.308172 145752.138491 176816.742809 214829.277358
2025-12-28 59675.051905 76468.419686 96011.671381 120242.292269 149271.571989 182719.892840 223947.239355
2026-01-04 58329.648745 75678.889716 96061.957591 121554.323597 152344.000571 188083.549870 232440.023580
2026-01-11 56724.920925 74528.173618 95646.444266 122290.071850 154732.886713 192669.944761 240078.303593
2026-01-18 54948.896510 73102.278045 94841.759492 122506.716260 156463.554229 196458.966161 246776.214102
2026-01-25 53424.813583 71933.371954 94301.399883 123001.758527 158498.618820 200595.531551 253894.065760
2026-02-01 51777.337438 70549.753767 93442.292285 123055.052988 159955.035836 204010.513362 260135.526933
2026-02-08 50825.218414 70014.548798 93610.071560 124359.583563 162937.853472 209278.698282 268647.711841
2026-02-15 49310.947272 68704.890665 92757.466614 124343.766179 164250.570919 212488.107843 274643.389357
2026-02-22 48626.424677 68445.672288 93215.297905 125966.549687 167604.065766 218213.822151 283758.563279
2026-03-01 47734.210917 67882.080941 93257.222364 127039.436117 170255.556664 223074.921445 291827.703519
2026-03-08 46426.624030 66729.034469 92503.829240 127061.455864 171553.580808 226241.798537 297796.619117
2026-03-15 45316.515664 65805.500966 92017.866758 127401.263039 173236.529203 229881.415327 304362.493763
2026-03-22 44854.351420 65735.304465 92633.119237 129161.640773 176738.442740 235818.135946 313839.824448